In Iowa, the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Barack Obama leading John McCain 44% to 42%. This is the third consecutive poll to find the candidates very close in the state that gave Obama his first victory on the way to the Democratic Presidential Nomination. A month ago, it was Obama by four. In February, it was Obama by three. …
As for Iowa Governor Chet Culver (D), 35% say he is doing a good or excellent job while 30% give him poor marks.
In the unlikely event that Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic nomination, she trails McCain in Iowa by a 45% to 42% margin. …
Huckabee Surges, Obama Gains in Iowa; The new NEWSWEEK poll shows the former Arkansas governor now has a two-to-one lead over Romney, while Barack improves against Hillary.
Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee has vaulted over his major GOP challengers to take a commanding lead in the race to win the Iowa caucuses, while Barack Obama continues to edge ahead of Hillary Clinton among Democrats likely to participate, a new NEWSWEEK poll shows.
The most dramatic result to come out of the poll, which is based on telephone interviews with 1,408 registered Iowa voters on Dec. 5 and 6, is Huckabee’s emergence from the shadows of the GOP race into the front runner’s spot in just two months. The ordained Southern Baptist minister now leads Romney by a two-to-one margin, 39 percent to 17 percent, among likely GOP caucus-goers. In the last NEWSWEEK survey, conducted Sept. 26-27, Huckabee polled a mere 6 percent to Romney’s 25 percent, which then led the field. …
… The Iowa caucuses will take place while universities are in the midst of winter break. With most campuses closed, if students skip voting because they’re vacationing or visiting family in other states while young Iowans who aren’t college-educated turn out to caucus, Clinton could get the edge with this important vote bloc. That could make the difference in a state where Clinton, Obama and Edwards are locked in a virtual three-way tie.
The early caucus date “probably hurts a little bit the college turnout in Iowa, but I don’t know how much,” said James A. Leach, a former Iowa congressman who now directs the Harvard institute that released the survey. Given the intensity of college students’ interest in issues and the candidates, Leach said, “I would be very surprised if there isn’t a very large youth turnout in Iowa this election.”
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